The post-mortem on the attempt to expel Moira Deeming is being read entirely wrong. The mainstream press is obsessed with the "frustration" of the Victorian Liberal moderates, painting a picture of a strategic misfire or a series of unfortunate tactical blunders.
They are missing the graveyard for the headstones.
This wasn't a tactical failure. It was a fundamental misunderstanding of how power, grassroots movements, and modern political identity actually function. The moderates didn't just lose a vote; they demonstrated they no longer understand the biology of their own party.
The Myth of the "Broad Church"
For decades, the Liberal Party has hidden behind the "broad church" cliché. It’s a convenient shield used to avoid defining what the party actually stands for. In reality, a broad church only works if there is a shared roof. Right now, the roof is gone, and the moderates are trying to kick people out of a building that is already on fire.
The failure to oust Deeming wasn't about her specific participation in a rally or the optics of the protesters nearby. It was about the fact that the moderate wing has lost its "Experience" in ground-game politics. I’ve seen factions blow decades of goodwill on single-issue purges, and this was a masterclass in how to alienate your base while failing to impress the swinging voters you’re supposedly "saving."
Moderates believe that by purging "controversial" figures, they become more palatable to the inner-city elite. They aren't. To the inner-city progressive, a "moderate Liberal" is still a Liberal, which is to say, the enemy. By attacking their own right wing, they didn't win over the teal-voting demographic; they just proved to the conservative base that the party leadership hates them.
The Incompetence of the "Sensible Center"
Let’s look at the mechanics. If you’re going to move against a sitting MP, you don't do it with a "maybe" or a "we’ll see." You do it with overwhelming force and a pre-secured majority.
The moderates went in with a plan that was as thin as a campaign flyer. They relied on moral grandstanding rather than the cold, hard math of party room votes. In politics, "feeling right" is a luxury; "having the numbers" is a necessity.
- Miscalculation 1: They assumed the public outcry would force the hand of the wavering MPs. It didn't.
- Miscalculation 2: They underestimated the resilience of the religious and conservative right, who saw the attack on Deeming as an attack on their own right to exist within the party.
- Miscalculation 3: They failed to provide a viable alternative vision. If Deeming is gone, what is the Liberal Party? "Labor-Lite"? That pitch has failed at every Victorian election for twenty years.
The Deeming Paradox
Here is the truth nobody admits: Moira Deeming is more useful to the Liberal Party inside the tent than outside it, but the moderates are too blinded by Twitter ratios to see it.
When you try to expel someone for their "unacceptable" views, you don't silence those views. You turn that person into a martyr. You give them a platform that transcends the party structure. Deeming now has more name recognition and "Expertise" in the eyes of her supporters than the entire moderate frontbench combined.
The moderates thought they were performing a surgical strike. Instead, they performed an amputation on a healthy limb because they didn't like the color of the sock.
Stop Trying to "Fix" the Brand
The obsession with "brand management" is killing the Liberal Party. Politics isn't a marketing exercise; it’s a conflict of values. The moderates want to win by being the "least offensive option." This is a losing strategy in an era of high-conviction politics.
People don't vote for the "sensible center" when the center is a vacuum. They vote for people who stand for something, even if they disagree with parts of it. By trying to sanitize the party, the moderates are effectively lobotomizing it.
I’ve watched parties in the UK and Canada go through this same cycle. The "centrists" purge the "radicals" to win over the media, only to find that the media still hates them and their base has stayed home on election day.
The Cost of the Failed Purge
- Lost Trust: The conservative grassroots now view the leadership as a hostile occupying force.
- Paralysis: John Pesutto is now trapped. He can’t move left without losing his base, and he can’t move right without looking weak after the failed expulsion.
- Irrelevance: While the Liberals fight over who gets to sit in the pews of their "broad church," the Victorian government continues to operate with almost zero effective opposition.
The Wrong Question
People ask, "How can the Liberals unite?"
That is the wrong question. Unity is a byproduct of purpose. The real question is: "Does the Liberal Party have a reason to exist if it refuses to represent the people who actually vote for it?"
The moderates are terrified of being associated with "fringe" elements. But in modern politics, the fringe is where the energy is. You don't manage the fringe by cutting it off; you manage it by leading it.
The attempt to oust Deeming wasn't just a failure of leadership; it was a confession. It was the moderates admitting they don't know how to lead people they don't agree with. They only know how to lead people who already think exactly like them.
That isn't leadership. That's a social club. And social clubs don't win elections.
If you want to win in Victoria, you don't do it by apologising for your existence. You do it by offering a vision of the state that is fundamentally different from the status quo. You don't get there by obsessing over whether a backbencher attended a rally. You get there by focusing on the cost of living, the energy crisis, and the crumbling infrastructure.
The moderates spent all their political capital on a HR dispute. Meanwhile, the state is moving on without them.
The Liberal Party doesn't need a cleanup crew. It needs a spine. Until the moderates realize that their "sensible" approach is actually the most radical form of self-destruction, they will continue to fail.
The Deeming saga isn't a "distraction." It is the defining proof that the Victorian Liberal Party is currently a headless horseman, riding full tilt into a brick wall of its own making.
Stop trying to be liked by people who will never vote for you. Start being respected by the people who will.
Pick a side or get out of the way.
