Mark Carney is selling a fantasy. It is a high-end, bespoke fantasy wrapped in the sophisticated language of global governance, but it is a fantasy nonetheless. The idea that Canada and Australia—two resource-heavy economies with aging demographics and stagnant productivity—can "set the agenda" for a world in crisis is not just optimistic. It is a dangerous distraction from the structural rot within.
When Carney speaks at high-level summits, the room nods. He has the resume. He has the suit. But the premise that middle powers can lead the world through a "polycrisis" of climate change, inflation, and geopolitical fragmentation ignores the brutal reality of hard power. You do not set the agenda when you are a price taker. You do not lead when your innovation index is sliding.
The Productivity Trap Carney Ignores
The consensus view, championed by the likes of Carney and various G7 bureaucrats, is that Canada and Australia are uniquely positioned to lead the green transition because of their vast mineral wealth. They call it "the battery of the world."
I have spent years watching capital flows in these markets. What the "agenda-setters" miss is that having rocks in the ground is not a strategy; it is a geographic accident. While Carney talks about setting global standards, Canada’s labor productivity has been on a downward spiral for years. Australia’s economy is essentially a house-flipping market built on top of a hole in the ground.
If you want to set the global agenda, you need to produce more than you consume. You need to export more than just raw materials and inflated real estate.
- Canada’s GDP per capita is decoupled from the U.S. at a rate we haven't seen in decades.
- Australia’s business investment outside of mining is anemic.
- Both nations are addicted to high-volume immigration to paper over the cracks in their per-capita growth.
The "crises" Carney mentions are real, but his solution is a vanity project. He suggests that by aligning our regulatory frameworks and "leveraging" (to use a word I despise) our ESG credentials, we can force the hand of the U.S. and China. That is a delusion of grandeur.
The Green Subsidy Arms Race
Carney’s thesis hinges on the idea that middle powers can steer the transition to Net Zero. But look at the math. The U.S. Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) changed everything. It wasn't a "collaborative" move. It was a protectionist vacuum cleaner designed to suck capital out of every other jurisdiction.
When the U.S. puts $369 billion on the table, Canada’s attempt to "set the agenda" by matching subsidies is a suicide pact. We are trying to out-spend the person who prints the world’s reserve currency. It is a losing hand.
I’ve seen boards of directors in Toronto and Sydney look at these "global agendas" and then quietly move their operations to Texas or Ohio. Why? Because the "agenda" Carney wants to set is built on regulation, while the real world is built on incentives and cheap energy.
The Misconception of Moral Authority
There is a pervasive belief in Ottawa and Canberra that "values-based" leadership counts for something in a fragmented world. It doesn't.
In a world where the $S&P 500$ is dominated by five tech giants and the global South is looking to China for infrastructure, nobody cares if Canada has a "sophisticated" carbon pricing mechanism. They care about $kW/h$ costs and the speed of permitting.
By focusing on the "agenda," Carney is encouraging these nations to play a game of pretend. We are pretending we are the world's bank when we are actually the world's boutique. Boutiques don't survive a recession.
Stop Trying to Save the World and Start Saving the Economy
If Canada and Australia actually wanted to influence the global stage, they would stop trying to be the "moral conscience" of the G20 and start becoming competitive.
Here is the counter-intuitive truth: The best way to survive a global crisis is to be so efficient that you are indispensable. Right now, both countries are optional. If Canada stopped exporting oil tomorrow, the world would hurt for a week, and then the Permian Basin would fill the gap. If Australia stopped exporting iron ore, it would be a blip in the long-term rise of African mining projects.
We have confused "being at the table" with "running the kitchen."
The Real Cost of "Setting the Agenda"
Every hour spent by a bureaucrat in a working group for the "Global Financial Architecture" is an hour not spent fixing the internal barriers to trade.
- Inter-provincial trade barriers in Canada cost the economy roughly $4%$ of GDP annually.
- Australian energy costs are some of the highest in the developed world despite their abundance of gas.
- Regulatory sludge makes it take ten years to open a mine for the very minerals Carney says we need.
The "crises" are not the problem. Our response—this performative globalism—is the problem. We are acting like the captain of a sinking ship who is worried about the dinner menu in the first-class cabin.
The Thought Experiment: The Sovereign Pivot
Imagine a scenario where Canada and Australia stopped attending the summits. Imagine they stopped trying to "set the agenda" for the global climate and instead focused entirely on becoming the most deregulated, high-productivity, low-tax jurisdictions for the energy transition.
Instead of subsidizing a single battery plant with $13 billion in taxpayer money, you eliminate the corporate tax for any company that patents a new energy technology on home soil. You stop worrying about what the EU thinks of your "clean fuel regulations" and you start building nuclear reactors like your life depends on it.
That is how you lead. You lead by being the example of success, not the loudest voice in the Zoom call.
The Institutional Failure of Central Bankers
Mark Carney is a central banker by trade. Central bankers believe that if you move the right levers and communicate with enough "forward guidance," the world will fall into line.
But we are entering a decade of physical reality.
- Supply chains are being re-shored based on geography and guns, not spreadsheets.
- Inflation is structural, driven by aging workforces and energy scarcity.
- Capital is no longer free.
In this environment, Carney’s brand of "enlightened globalism" is a relic of the 1990s. He is trying to apply a software update to a hardware problem. You cannot "set the agenda" for a world that is moving toward 19th-century realpolitik using 21st-century ESG metrics.
The Hard Truth About Middle Power Status
The phrase "Middle Power" is a polite way of saying "you don't have a seat at the big table, but we’ll let you sit in the room if you bring snacks."
The "crises" Carney identifies are real, but the idea that Canada and Australia are the ones to fix them is a vanity project for the political class. It allows leaders to avoid the hard, unpopular work of domestic reform. It’s much easier to fly to Davos and talk about "Global Financial Stability" than it is to tell the domestic voter that their housing-based economy is a Ponzi scheme.
If we want to survive the next twenty years, we need to stop listening to the sirens of the "Global Agenda."
We need to stop trying to be the world's referee and start trying to be a player. Right now, we aren't even on the field. We are in the stands, shouting instructions at the players while our own locker room is on fire.
Stop trying to lead the world. Start trying to run a country that works.
Build the mines. Build the reactors. Cut the taxes. Fire the consultants.
The world doesn't need Canada and Australia to "set the agenda." The world needs us to stop being a cautionary tale of how to turn a resource-rich paradise into a stagnant, high-cost bureaucracy.
The agenda is set by those who can build, not those who can talk about building. Choose which one you want to be.
