Foreign Minister Gideon Sa’ar just declared that Israel has "effectively won" the war against Iran. It's a bold claim, especially considering the missiles are still flying. If you look at the raw data of the last 18 days, the shift is undeniable. Iran's military infrastructure is in tatters. Its top leadership is decimated. The "Axis of Resistance" that Tehran spent decades building is currently a collection of disjointed groups fighting for survival.
But declaring victory isn't the same as achieving peace. While Sa’ar is busy touting a strategic win, the Israeli government admits the core goals of this campaign remain unmet. We're in a strange limbo where the enemy is beaten but refuses to quit. This isn't a traditional war with a signed treaty on a battleship. It's a violent dismantling of a regional power, and the "day after" is looking more complicated than the war itself.
Why Sa’ar Thinks the War is Already Over
The rationale behind the "victory" claim is purely structural. Since the joint U.S.-Israeli strikes kicked off on February 28, the Islamic Republic has undergone a catastrophic degradation. We aren't just talking about a few blown-up factories.
- Leadership Vacuum: The assassination of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and senior IRGC commanders has left the regime's head severed from its body. While Mojtaba Khamenei has stepped in, he's inherited a house on fire.
- Military Paralyzed: Over 190 ballistic missile launchers and 100 naval vessels have been turned into scrap metal. The IDF claims Iran is "dramatically weakened" compared to its pre-February status.
- The Nuclear Setback: Strikes on Fordow and Natanz have pushed the nuclear program back by years, if not a decade.
To Sa’ar, the "existential threat" is no longer a looming shadow. It’s a broken machine. When he says Israel has won, he means Iran can no longer project the kind of overwhelming force it once could. The problem is that a wounded predator is still dangerous, and Tehran’s "modern piracy" in the Strait of Hormuz is proof of that.
The Goals That Keep the Missiles Flying
If Israel won, why is the IDF still planning operations for the next three weeks? The disconnect lies in the definition of a "finished" mission. Sa’ar is being honest about one thing: the regime can only truly be toppled by the Iranian people. Israel can't bomb a new government into existence.
The unmet goals are specific and difficult. First, there’s the total removal of long-term attack capabilities. As long as Iran can fire salvos of missiles—even if they're less sophisticated—Israel doesn't feel the job is done. Second, there's the Hezbollah factor. The 2026 Lebanon war is a direct byproduct of this conflict. Israel won't stop until Hezbollah is disarmed and pushed back, a task that has proven notoriously difficult despite the pounding Beirut is taking.
There’s also the matter of the "unconditional surrender" rhetoric coming from the Trump administration. While Washington and Jerusalem are mostly in sync, there’s a growing gap in how they want to exit this mess. Trump’s "excursion" in Iran has been devastating, but his administration is sending mixed signals about the endgame. Is it regime change, or just regime containment?
The Human Cost and Regional Upheaval
Don't let the talk of strategic victories mask the reality on the ground. Over 2,000 people are dead. The conflict has spilled into Iraq, Kuwait, and the UAE. More than a million people in Lebanon are displaced. This is a regional earthquake.
The closure of the Strait of Hormuz has sent oil prices into a tailspin, and the world is starting to lose patience. While allies like Estonia are offering support for a maritime mission to reopen the waterway, others are balking. They’re tired of being told a war is "won" while the global economy takes a hit.
You’re seeing cracks in the international consensus. Even some U.S. officials, like Joe Kent, have resigned in protest, claiming the threat was never "imminent" enough to justify this level of destruction. This internal friction matters because it limits how long Israel and the U.S. can sustain high-intensity operations.
What Happens Next
Expect the "patience" Sa’ar called for to be tested. The IDF is currently focused on hunting down the remaining IRGC leadership and finishing the job in southern Lebanon. They’re betting that if they keep the pressure high enough, the Iranian people will finally reach a breaking point and do what the missiles couldn't: end the regime for good.
If you’re tracking this conflict, watch the Strait of Hormuz. That’s the real barometer of the war’s end. As long as 20% of the world's oil is blocked, the "victory" Sa’ar speaks of will remain a hollow talking point for the rest of the world. Israel might have won the military battle, but the political and economic war is still very much up for grabs.
Monitor the daily IDF briefings for updates on "Operation Roaring Lion" and watch for any shifts in the Trump administration's timeline. The next fourteen days will likely determine if this victory turns into a lasting settlement or an endless war of attrition.
